Are the base models estimating and without obvious mistakes?

IFP Model Estimated h lambda time_period data_aggregated partial_train partial_outcome
821 ARIMA TRUE 2 NA month FALSE used FALSE
839 ARIMA TRUE 3 0 month FALSE discarded FALSE
866 ARIMA TRUE 1 NA month FALSE no TRUE
929 ARIMA TRUE 4 0 month FALSE used FALSE
938 ARIMA FALSE NA NA NA NA NA NA
1028 ARIMA TRUE 21 NA day FALSE no FALSE
1037 ARIMA TRUE 3 NA month FALSE used FALSE
1055 ARIMA TRUE 1 NA fixed TRUE no TRUE
1145 ARIMA TRUE 2 NA month FALSE used FALSE
1190 ARIMA TRUE 5 0 month FALSE discarded FALSE
1208 ARIMA TRUE 1 NA fixed TRUE no TRUE
1226 ARIMA TRUE 5 0 month FALSE discarded FALSE
1235 ARIMA TRUE 2 NA month FALSE used FALSE
1271 ARIMA FALSE NA NA NA NA NA NA
1406 ARIMA TRUE 3 NA month FALSE used FALSE
1433 ARIMA TRUE 5 NA month FALSE discarded FALSE
IFP Error
938 validate_data(target, data_period, question_period): Historical data in request appear to n
1271 validate_data(target, data_period, question_period): Historical data in request appear to n

Plot ARIMA forecasts

Request 1433

What will be the short-term interest rate for the Czech Republic (CZE) in June 2018?

Request 1406

What will be the monthly period-over-period change in the consumer price index (CPI) for Egypt in May 2018?

Request 1271

How many United Nations Security Council Resolutions concerning Syria will be vetoed by Russia between 22 April 2018 and 22 August 2018?

Request 1235

What will be the monthly period-over-period change in the consumer price index (CPI) for Benin in April 2018?

Request 1226

Will ACLED record any civilian fatalities in Ghana in June 2018?

Request 1208

What will be the maximum sea ice extent on the Baffin Bay Gulf of St. Lawrence between 21 March 2018 and 10 April 2018?

Request 1190

How many deaths perpetrated by Boko Haram will the Council on Foreign Relations report for July 2018?

Request 1145

What will be the monthly Period-over-Period change in the consumer price index (CPI) for Malawi in April (Month 04) 2018?

Request 1055

What will be the maximum sea ice extent on the Bering Sea between 14 March 2018 and 10 April 2018?

Request 1037

What will be the long-term interest rate for Portugal (PRT) in April 2018?

Request 1028

What will be the daily closing price of gold on 26 April 2018 in USD?

Request 938

What will be the maximum sea ice extent on the Barents Sea between 1 January 2018 and 10 April 2018?

Request 929

How much crude oil will Libya produce in May 2018?

Request 866

How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide in March 2018?

Request 839

Will ACLED record any riot/protest events in Gabon in April 2018?

Request 821

How many battle deaths will ACLED record in Afghanistan in April 2018?

Summary table for all models and all IFPs

IFP Model Estimated RMSE
1028 ARIMA 1 8.75
1028 ETS 1 8.75
1028 RWF 1 NA
1028 geometric RWF 1 NA
1037 ARIMA 1 0.36
1037 ETS 1 0.37
1037 RWF 1 NA
1037 geometric RWF 1 NA
1055 ARIMA 1 104644.88
1055 ETS 1 156111.85
1055 RWF 1 NA
1055 geometric RWF 1 NA
1145 ARIMA 1 13.05
1145 ETS 1 12.43
1145 RWF 1 NA
1145 geometric RWF 0 NA
1190 ARIMA 1 429.45
1190 ETS 1 429.90
1190 RWF 1 NA
1190 geometric RWF 1 NA
1208 ARIMA 1 98555.86
1208 ETS 1 141832.26
1208 RWF 1 NA
1208 geometric RWF 1 NA
1226 ARIMA 1 10.27
1226 ETS 1 10.28
1226 RWF 1 NA
1226 geometric RWF 1 NA
1235 ARIMA 1 1.10
1235 ETS 1 1.17
1235 RWF 1 NA
1235 geometric RWF 0 NA
1271 All models 0 NA
1406 ARIMA 1 1.32
1406 ETS 1 1.32
1406 RWF 1 NA
1406 geometric RWF 0 NA
1433 ARIMA 1 0.11
1433 ETS 1 0.12
1433 RWF 1 NA
1433 geometric RWF 1 NA
821 ARIMA 1 909.67
821 ETS 1 909.72
821 RWF 1 NA
821 geometric RWF 1 NA
839 ARIMA 1 1.20
839 ETS 1 1.23
839 RWF 1 NA
839 geometric RWF 1 NA
866 ARIMA 1 22.73
866 ETS 1 22.73
866 RWF 1 NA
866 geometric RWF 1 NA
929 ARIMA 1 1602.58
929 ETS 1 1794.60
929 RWF 1 NA
929 geometric RWF 1 NA
938 All models 0 NA

Plot forecasts for all models and all IFPs

Request 1028

What will be the daily closing price of gold on 26 April 2018 in USD?

Request 1037

What will be the long-term interest rate for Portugal (PRT) in April 2018?

Request 1055

What will be the maximum sea ice extent on the Bering Sea between 14 March 2018 and 10 April 2018?

Request 1145

What will be the monthly Period-over-Period change in the consumer price index (CPI) for Malawi in April (Month 04) 2018?

Request 1190

How many deaths perpetrated by Boko Haram will the Council on Foreign Relations report for July 2018?

Request 1208

What will be the maximum sea ice extent on the Baffin Bay Gulf of St. Lawrence between 21 March 2018 and 10 April 2018?

Request 1226

Will ACLED record any civilian fatalities in Ghana in June 2018?

Request 1235

What will be the monthly period-over-period change in the consumer price index (CPI) for Benin in April 2018?

Request 1271

How many United Nations Security Council Resolutions concerning Syria will be vetoed by Russia between 22 April 2018 and 22 August 2018?

Request 1406

What will be the monthly period-over-period change in the consumer price index (CPI) for Egypt in May 2018?

Request 1433

What will be the short-term interest rate for the Czech Republic (CZE) in June 2018?

Request 821

How many battle deaths will ACLED record in Afghanistan in April 2018?

Request 839

Will ACLED record any riot/protest events in Gabon in April 2018?

Request 866

How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide in March 2018?

Request 929

How much crude oil will Libya produce in May 2018?

Request 938

What will be the maximum sea ice extent on the Barents Sea between 1 January 2018 and 10 April 2018?