RCT test output
Andreas Beger, Predictive Heuristics
2018-04-19
Are the base models estimating and without obvious mistakes?
| IFP | Model | Estimated | h | lambda | time_period | data_aggregated | partial_train | partial_outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 821 | ARIMA | TRUE | 2 | NA | month | FALSE | used | FALSE |
| 839 | ARIMA | TRUE | 3 | 0 | month | FALSE | discarded | FALSE |
| 866 | ARIMA | TRUE | 1 | NA | month | FALSE | no | TRUE |
| 929 | ARIMA | TRUE | 4 | 0 | month | FALSE | used | FALSE |
| 938 | ARIMA | FALSE | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 1028 | ARIMA | TRUE | 21 | NA | day | FALSE | no | FALSE |
| 1037 | ARIMA | TRUE | 3 | NA | month | FALSE | used | FALSE |
| 1055 | ARIMA | TRUE | 1 | NA | fixed | TRUE | no | TRUE |
| 1145 | ARIMA | TRUE | 2 | NA | month | FALSE | used | FALSE |
| 1190 | ARIMA | TRUE | 5 | 0 | month | FALSE | discarded | FALSE |
| 1208 | ARIMA | TRUE | 1 | NA | fixed | TRUE | no | TRUE |
| 1226 | ARIMA | TRUE | 5 | 0 | month | FALSE | discarded | FALSE |
| 1235 | ARIMA | TRUE | 2 | NA | month | FALSE | used | FALSE |
| 1271 | ARIMA | FALSE | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 1406 | ARIMA | TRUE | 3 | NA | month | FALSE | used | FALSE |
| 1433 | ARIMA | TRUE | 5 | NA | month | FALSE | discarded | FALSE |
| IFP | Error |
|---|---|
| 938 | validate_data(target, data_period, question_period): Historical data in request appear to n |
| 1271 | validate_data(target, data_period, question_period): Historical data in request appear to n |
Plot ARIMA forecasts
Request 1433
What will be the short-term interest rate for the Czech Republic (CZE) in June 2018?
Request 1406
What will be the monthly period-over-period change in the consumer price index (CPI) for Egypt in May 2018?
Request 1271
How many United Nations Security Council Resolutions concerning Syria will be vetoed by Russia between 22 April 2018 and 22 August 2018?
Request 1235
What will be the monthly period-over-period change in the consumer price index (CPI) for Benin in April 2018?
Request 1226
Will ACLED record any civilian fatalities in Ghana in June 2018?
Request 1208
What will be the maximum sea ice extent on the Baffin Bay Gulf of St. Lawrence between 21 March 2018 and 10 April 2018?
Request 1190
How many deaths perpetrated by Boko Haram will the Council on Foreign Relations report for July 2018?
Request 1145
What will be the monthly Period-over-Period change in the consumer price index (CPI) for Malawi in April (Month 04) 2018?
Request 1055
What will be the maximum sea ice extent on the Bering Sea between 14 March 2018 and 10 April 2018?
Request 1037
What will be the long-term interest rate for Portugal (PRT) in April 2018?
Request 1028
What will be the daily closing price of gold on 26 April 2018 in USD?
Request 938
What will be the maximum sea ice extent on the Barents Sea between 1 January 2018 and 10 April 2018?
Request 929
How much crude oil will Libya produce in May 2018?
Request 866
How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide in March 2018?
Request 839
Will ACLED record any riot/protest events in Gabon in April 2018?
Request 821
How many battle deaths will ACLED record in Afghanistan in April 2018?
Summary table for all models and all IFPs
| IFP | Model | Estimated | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1028 | ARIMA | 1 | 8.75 |
| 1028 | ETS | 1 | 8.75 |
| 1028 | RWF | 1 | NA |
| 1028 | geometric RWF | 1 | NA |
| 1037 | ARIMA | 1 | 0.36 |
| 1037 | ETS | 1 | 0.37 |
| 1037 | RWF | 1 | NA |
| 1037 | geometric RWF | 1 | NA |
| 1055 | ARIMA | 1 | 104644.88 |
| 1055 | ETS | 1 | 156111.85 |
| 1055 | RWF | 1 | NA |
| 1055 | geometric RWF | 1 | NA |
| 1145 | ARIMA | 1 | 13.05 |
| 1145 | ETS | 1 | 12.43 |
| 1145 | RWF | 1 | NA |
| 1145 | geometric RWF | 0 | NA |
| 1190 | ARIMA | 1 | 429.45 |
| 1190 | ETS | 1 | 429.90 |
| 1190 | RWF | 1 | NA |
| 1190 | geometric RWF | 1 | NA |
| 1208 | ARIMA | 1 | 98555.86 |
| 1208 | ETS | 1 | 141832.26 |
| 1208 | RWF | 1 | NA |
| 1208 | geometric RWF | 1 | NA |
| 1226 | ARIMA | 1 | 10.27 |
| 1226 | ETS | 1 | 10.28 |
| 1226 | RWF | 1 | NA |
| 1226 | geometric RWF | 1 | NA |
| 1235 | ARIMA | 1 | 1.10 |
| 1235 | ETS | 1 | 1.17 |
| 1235 | RWF | 1 | NA |
| 1235 | geometric RWF | 0 | NA |
| 1271 | All models | 0 | NA |
| 1406 | ARIMA | 1 | 1.32 |
| 1406 | ETS | 1 | 1.32 |
| 1406 | RWF | 1 | NA |
| 1406 | geometric RWF | 0 | NA |
| 1433 | ARIMA | 1 | 0.11 |
| 1433 | ETS | 1 | 0.12 |
| 1433 | RWF | 1 | NA |
| 1433 | geometric RWF | 1 | NA |
| 821 | ARIMA | 1 | 909.67 |
| 821 | ETS | 1 | 909.72 |
| 821 | RWF | 1 | NA |
| 821 | geometric RWF | 1 | NA |
| 839 | ARIMA | 1 | 1.20 |
| 839 | ETS | 1 | 1.23 |
| 839 | RWF | 1 | NA |
| 839 | geometric RWF | 1 | NA |
| 866 | ARIMA | 1 | 22.73 |
| 866 | ETS | 1 | 22.73 |
| 866 | RWF | 1 | NA |
| 866 | geometric RWF | 1 | NA |
| 929 | ARIMA | 1 | 1602.58 |
| 929 | ETS | 1 | 1794.60 |
| 929 | RWF | 1 | NA |
| 929 | geometric RWF | 1 | NA |
| 938 | All models | 0 | NA |
Plot forecasts for all models and all IFPs
Request 1028
What will be the daily closing price of gold on 26 April 2018 in USD?
Request 1037
What will be the long-term interest rate for Portugal (PRT) in April 2018?
Request 1055
What will be the maximum sea ice extent on the Bering Sea between 14 March 2018 and 10 April 2018?
Request 1145
What will be the monthly Period-over-Period change in the consumer price index (CPI) for Malawi in April (Month 04) 2018?
Request 1190
How many deaths perpetrated by Boko Haram will the Council on Foreign Relations report for July 2018?
Request 1208
What will be the maximum sea ice extent on the Baffin Bay Gulf of St. Lawrence between 21 March 2018 and 10 April 2018?
Request 1226
Will ACLED record any civilian fatalities in Ghana in June 2018?
Request 1235
What will be the monthly period-over-period change in the consumer price index (CPI) for Benin in April 2018?
Request 1271
How many United Nations Security Council Resolutions concerning Syria will be vetoed by Russia between 22 April 2018 and 22 August 2018?
Request 1406
What will be the monthly period-over-period change in the consumer price index (CPI) for Egypt in May 2018?
Request 1433
What will be the short-term interest rate for the Czech Republic (CZE) in June 2018?
Request 821
How many battle deaths will ACLED record in Afghanistan in April 2018?
Request 839
Will ACLED record any riot/protest events in Gabon in April 2018?
Request 866
How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide in March 2018?
Request 929
How much crude oil will Libya produce in May 2018?
Request 938
What will be the maximum sea ice extent on the Barents Sea between 1 January 2018 and 10 April 2018?
